The Killer Death Rock of Doom

A dispassionate analysis

OK, let's review the situation in an objective and scientific manner, so that after carefully weighing all the available information we can decide, calmly and rationally, whether we should poop our pants.

Here are the facts:

On Jan. 29 The New York Times published an article, written by Robin George Andrews, which begins: "You may hear about a large asteroid headed toward Earth. Don’t panic."

OK, then! A large asteroid — which could wipe out an entire city — is headed toward Earth, but Robin George Andrews says we should not panic. And we want to believe him, because (a) he's an award-winning PhD science journalist for The New York Times, and (b) he goes by three names.

The article states that astronomers spotted the asteroid late last year and named it "2024 YR4," probably because that sounds less threatening than "Killer Death Rock of Doom." Scientists calculated that it had a 1.3 percent chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032.

As for why we shouldn't panic, Robin George Andrews states: "a 1.3 percent chance of a hit is also a 98.7 percent chance of a miss." He quotes an asteroid scientist as saying "It’s not a number you want to ignore, but it’s not a number you need to lose sleep over."

Hmm. I don't know about that, Mr. Asteroid Scientist. If I'm booked on a flight, and the airline informs me that my plane has a 1.3 percent chance of crashing, I'm pretty sure I'm going to lose some sleep. There's a reason you virtually never see major airlines using this slogan:

"Fly (Name of Airline)! There's a 98.7 percent chance your plane won't crash!"

Although lately this slogan is starting to feel more realistic.

But let's move along. On Feb. 8, Robin George Andrews wrote another article about the asteroid, stating that the odds had "leaped" — that's right, "leaped" — to 2.3 percent.

"To many, this feels unsettling," wrote Robin George Andrews.

Speaking for many, let me say: Yes! Yes it does!

To calm us down, Robin George Andrews quotes Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who says "It is true that the probability of impact has doubled recently, but that doesn’t mean that it will keep doing so. What matters is that the probability of impact is very small, and that it is likely to drop to zero as we keep observing 2024 YR4."

OK then! Zero! That's the kind of percentage we want to hear from our killer-asteroid experts!

So despite the recent percentage leap, there was reason for humanity in general to feel hopeful.

For a little over a week.

And then, yesterday, Robin George Andrews wrote a THIRD article. Here's the headline:

Will That Asteroid Strike Earth? Risk Level Rises to Highest Ever Recorded

That's right: The odds did NOT go down. The odds went in exactly the opposite direction from down, namely, up. They are now, as I write these words, 3.1 percent. According to Robin George Andrews, 2024 YR4 is now "the most likely sizable space rock ever forecast to impact planet Earth."

HOW ARE YOU SLEEPING NOW, MR. ASTEROID SCIENTIST?

I apologize for shouting in capital letters. But this is serious. I am not a trained scientist, but I did study mathematics in the early 1960s at Harold C. Crittenden Junior High School in Armonk, N.Y., under Mr. Leonard Schofield, who could hit you on the head with a piece of chalk from 25 feet away if you were not paying attention. Based on this training, the way I see it, if the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth continue to increase at a rate of approximately one percent per week — a trend that has been thoroughly documented in The New York Times by an award-winning PhD science writer with three names — that means that by 2032, which is seven years from now, the odds, assuming a standard rate of 52 weeks per year, will have increased by an amount equal to seven times 52, which means that — and I determined this using the calculator app on an iPhone protected by AppleCare — the odds of the killer asteroid striking the Earth are 364 percent.

Perhaps you're thinking: "Dave, are you certain? Because that number sounds a little high."

Really? It does? I notice you don't cite any specific flaw in my methodology or calculations, but OK, fine, let's humor you. Let's say I have wildly overestimated the risk. So let's cut my estimate in HALF, by dividing 364 by 2 on our iPhone. Guess what? We are still looking at a 182 percent chance of the Earth getting hit by the killer asteroid.

I'm not asking you believe me. I'm asking you to believe the Science of mathematics.

What does this mean for you, personally? It means, above all, that you are probably going to die must remain calm. You need to take the time to gather the facts and educate yourself on what the effects of an asteroid strike on a populated area would be. Never mind, I'll just tell you: They would be very bad. The London Daily Mail, which is always looking for ways to keep everybody calm, ran a big story yesterday about 2024 YR4 headlined:

Terrifying interactive map reveals exactly what will happen if the 'city-destroying' asteroid hits one of the world's most populated areas in 2032

In case you don't have time to read the Daily Mail article, I've created an illustration that will give you the gist:

Can anything be done to defend the Earth from the asteroid? As it happens, scientists are working on this right now, according to a book called How to Kill an Asteroid: The Real Science of Planetary Defense, which was written by — I am not making this up — Robin George Andrews.

I'm sure I speak for humanity in general when I say that I am grateful to these scientists for their efforts, and I hope they succeed. But we civilians also have to do our part to defend the planet in whatever small way we can, such as for example becoming paid subscribers to Substacks that provide vital information on this issue.

But we may have to do more. If, when Dec. 22, 2032, comes around, the Death Asteroid is heading straight for Earth, and the scientists can't stop it, it will be up to us to protect ourselves and our communities in whatever way we can. For example, if the asteroid is heading for Miami, we will shoot it down. Unfortunately not every community has our level of firepower.

The important thing is to stay informed, have a plan, and — above all — if you are a paid subscriber, participate in this scientific poll.