Killer Death Rock of Doom Update

Never mind.

I have an important update to my report regarding 2024 YR4, the asteroid that as of yesterday, according to asteroid scientists, was increasingly likely to hit the Earth in 2032 and maybe wipe out a city. I sincerely hope my report did not cause you to rush out and purchase a large quantity of survivalist food and a firearm to shoot your neighbors with, because scientists are now saying that 2024 YR4 is way less likely to hit us than they said it was yesterday.

Here’s a Washington Post story about it by Joel Achenbach, who is a friend of mine but you should trust him anyway. Joel writes:

The recently discovered, much-hyped Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has almost zero chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to the latest astronomical observations.

I don’t know if “much-hyped” is a direct reference to me, although I believe I’m the only professional journalist who calculated the probability of impact at 182 percent. In any event, it is now, according to Joel’s story, way lower, and probably heading for zero:

…the latest observations show only a 0.28 percent chance of a potentially catastrophic encounter, according to the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. That’s about a 1-in-360 chance…. Eventually, astronomers assume, new observations will show the asteroid’s orbit of the sun to the point that they eliminate any trajectories that would allow the asteroid to strike Earth.

So humanity is saved! Unless of course tomorrow the asteroid scientists — who are probably bored from squinting into their telescopes all day and might be enjoying all this media attention and (we cannot rule it out) might be secret investors in companies that sell survivalist food — decide to tell us that the odds have gone back UP again. I mean, it’s not as though we laypersons can doublecheck their scientific calculations. Many of us can’t figure out how to use the DEFROST function on our microwave oven. (At least I hope it’s many of us, and not just me.)

But for now, at least, you can rest easy, knowing there’s nothing to worry about, unless you count all the horrible things going on constantly all over the world.

In conclusion, here’s a picture that my wife, Michelle, took of a sea turtle, which has nothing to do with this substack report (I mean the photo doesn’t) (also the turtle doesn’t) (as far as I know) but I’ve been told that it’s good to include visual elements.

Also here’s a poll for you brilliant and vital paid subscribers: